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News and Price Targets

Discussion in 'Solar' started by Norse, Oct 28, 2013.

  1. forestg

    forestg Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Planet earth
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2018 at 3:19 PM
  2. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    You clearly have never watched buying the bayou in which many homes floating or in swamp land do not have grid connection and only generators or solar panels for power. These are minimalist people of course.

    The same is true for some rural beach front shows in which homes were built without grid. In fact 1 episode had a bucket with a toilet seat on it for the bathroom. By the way, that episode, they did not buy that house and went for the home with Grid attached.

    Then there is also buying Alaska where homes are rural and no grid.
  3. forestg

    forestg Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Planet earth
    Thanks. Did all those homes had the choice of a grid and didn't go with it? I guess what I'm saying is that if your house is zoned in a grid area, you are saying it is up to the homeowner if he wants his house to be connected to the grid or not, right? There is no requirement by the city for the certificate of occupancy. So nothing is preventing these folks in alabama (other than money) of telling Alabama Power to shove it where the sun don't shine and go all the way to solar+storage, right? And I'm sure as solar+storage makes economic sense, more and more people will do exactly that. Which in turn raise the rates of the ones that are still with Alabama Power, which in turn force more people to switch.
    palmer_md likes this.
  4. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    I can not speak for all states but most require solid waste disposal (i.e. septic) and water. In the City I had a rental in, I could not put the water in the renters name. I was told I had to be in my name since the sewage disposal is flushed with water and if for some reason water was shut off, it would be a health hazard.
  5. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    The ever dropping Wind and Solar + storage.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/11/wind-solar-storage-prices-smash-records/

    In a new report from Xcel Energy, the company reported unprecedented low bids for wind and solar with storage. Last year, Xcel announced it would close 660 MW worth of coal-fired power capacity at Comanche Generating Station. Xcel subsidiary Public Service Company issue a request for proposals for wind, solar, natural gas, and storage.

    Wind alone was bid at an astonishingly low median price of $18.10/MWh, smashing previous records. A total of 17,380 MW of wind capacity was bid with this as the median price.

    The big surprise, however, was the very low bid for wind and solar plus storage. Wind and solar plus battery storage had seven bids for a total of 4,048 MWh at a median bid of $30.60. The energy storage projects ranged from 4 to 10 hours in duration.

    read article for more.....
    forestg likes this.
  6. stockbutterfly

    stockbutterfly Moderator Staff Member

    Location:
    montreal
    NG storage getting to scary levels
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...scary-levels?uprof=22&isDirectRoadblock=false

    It is a cold winter so far but what would happen if we had a 1 in 50 or 1 in 100 winter, NG freezes off at the wellheads crashing supply and demand surges to hit record levels. I think reliance on NG for power and heating is a brittle system for American energy security. The US puts up a huge oil reserves and has a fragile power and heating reserve.
  7. tupapa

    tupapa New Member

    Hello 8th Dimension, I have a couple of questions;

    1- How far away are we from it being cheaper for individuals to go off-grid with Solar PV+storage than to buy electricity from the centralized grid?
    2- How far away are we from small populations to produce their own Solar PV+Storage and having their own Isolated Micro Grid?
  8. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    There are way to many variables to answer the question.

    Item 1 depends on locations and creature comforts. Once can always live without air conditioning on a 100 degree week right? Heck people live without electricity in a good part of the world. People living in the far northern hemisphere say Alaska and northern Canada can not use solar for almost 1/4 a year. You can not store that summer time solar efficiently enough to supply those dark days of winter.

    Item 2: It can be done today, but at what cost and what do you consider a small community and where is it located? Do they have 24 hour grocery stores? Do they have 24 hour 7 elevens? Do they have manufacturing industries? Do they run billboards 24/7 like Central Square or Shanghi
  9. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    https://www.reuters.com/article/ind...-renewables-dream-govt-official-idUSL3N1PB241

    NEW DELHI, Jan 17 (Reuters) - India will need at least $125 billion to fund its ambitious plan to increase the share of renewable power supply in the country’s grid by 2022, a top government official told Reuters, underlining the immense financing challenge ahead.

    The South Asian nation is one of the world’s most important growth markets for renewable energy. Millions of Indians are not yet linked up to the power grid but as the country of more than a billion people prospers, it is experiencing surging demand.

    To put India’s $125 billion requirement in context, global corporate funding for the solar industry - the world’s fastest-growing electricity source – was a tenth of that amount in 2017 at $12.8 billion, research firm Mercom says.

    In 2015, India said investment of $100 billion in the seven years to 2022 would be needed to meet its renewable energy goals.

    Installed renewable power capacity is currently about 60 gigawats (GW), and India plans to complete the bidding process by the end of 2019/20 to add a further 115 GW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2022.

    To do that, Anand Kumar, secretary at the ministry of new and renewable energy, said investment of at least $125 billion would be needed.

    India, which receives twice as much sunshine as European countries, wants to make solar central to its renewable expansion. It expects renewable energy to make up 40 percent of installed power capacity by 2030, compared with 18.2 percent at the end of 2017.

    Kumar said that $125 billion was a “conservative estimate” and foreign capital would be central to achieving the goal.

    Private equity firms, U.S. banks including Goldman Sachs , JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, and European utilities EDF and Engie are already investors or lenders in India’s renewable energy sector.

    read article for more.....
  10. stockbutterfly

    stockbutterfly Moderator Staff Member

    Location:
    montreal
    First Solar's Stock Has the Most to Lose in the Solar Tariff Decision
    Investors are pricing in a best-case scenario for the upcoming solar tariff decision, which means First Solar's stock has a lot to lose.

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/01/17/first-solar-has-the-most-to-lose-in-solar-tariff-d.aspx

    My guess is Trump will help the US companies as much as he can. The one thing I found interesting is that they discussed PERC working to improve performance well in harsh environments where FSLR Series 6 would normally outperform others. I always thought the others would figure out a way to improve performance under high temperatures. Has anyone seen anything on this?
  11. tupapa

    tupapa New Member

    Thanks 8thdimensions, I understand how there are a too many variables to take into account, I was thinking about my own country, Spain, a lot of our towns and cities have something like;

    4 Peak Sun Hours/Day
    2 Consecutive cloudy days
    Ample land with not too much cost.

    Panel prices have gone down so much, that once battery prices do the same, it should be financial sense for consumers to go off-grid or set up their own isolated grid?

    Isn´t it inevitable that once battery cost come down enough, a lot of the world is going to opt for one of these options and disconect from the central grid?
  12. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    I look at population density and available space as a limiting factor. In the U.S. where is a city like NY Philly Chicago etc going to put up solar panels? They do not have the land space and they are not going to cover their rooftop views that people paid for. These areas need solar glass for the high rises and windows. There is also little room for the massive space that batteries are needed for. I presume a place like Barcelona would be similarly restricted for solar.

    In the suburbs you have some more land typically 1/4 acre for the houses which are not all optimally situated with southern exposure for the main roof. The real estate available for 100% with storage that needs to run in winter hours is not there. Some of the suburbs have smaller land areas or 10-100 acre swaths that could be used for small community solar but that wipes out any business and housing expansions. Those small splotches are not likely to power a town of 50,000.

    It is only when you start moving out beyond the burbs to farm land in the U.S. and the smaller rural communities where land becomes abundant and the population density drops that community solar can be implemented more practical. But that is a small percentage of the population. In those small towns, they do not generally have available land and rooftop to support 100% solar in the winter time with storage. The rooftop and property of many of these small towns is still limited to quarter acres and the homes are generally smaller footprints from modern built homes in the suburbs. It is these smaller towns in which community solar makes the most sense as there is land available.

    To me grid free homes with creature comfort is only for those with larger homes and or the land available and money or those really rural where grid power is not an option.
  13. stockbutterfly

    stockbutterfly Moderator Staff Member

    Location:
    montreal
    I follow the social processes in technology adoption due to my professional work with farmers in developing countries and in Canada. If there is any complexity or capital required the technology does not get deep market penetration. So yes you will get some adoption by early adopters who are often looking for social prestige (like a sexy Tesla or solar roof) but the early majority will be slow to follow as they are cost conscious (see the nice chart).
    https://www.enablingchange.com.au/Summary_Diffusion_Theory.pdf

    My guess is this describes Forest, an early adopter to put up solar panels and pick up a Tesla
    "Early adopters are the exception to this rule. They are on the lookout for advantages and tend to see the risks as low because they are financially more secure, more personally confident, and better informed about the particular product or behaviour".
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2018 at 6:43 AM
  14. stockbutterfly

    stockbutterfly Moderator Staff Member

    Location:
    montreal
    Klothilde and forestg like this.

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