1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

News and Price Targets

Discussion in 'Solar' started by Norse, Oct 28, 2013.

  1. forestg

    forestg Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Planet earth
    Tesla May Give Up SolarCity’s #1 in Spot in U.S. Residential Solar
    Nov 12, 2017
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-may-solarcity-1-spot-120700837.html?.tsrc=rss
    .................
    In reality, Tesla has shrunk SolarCity to a fraction of its former self. Before long, Tesla may be passed by SunPower(NASDAQ: SPWR), Sunrun(NASDAQ: RUN), and Vivint Solar(NYSE: VSLR) in the distributed solar market (residential and commercial systems). It's hard to give up a lead in solar that quickly, but Tesla is giving up on solar right before our eyes.
    ..............

    SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR), Vivint Solar (NYSE: VSLR), and Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) have been steadily improving and even growing their businesses. In the third quarter, SunPower installed 70 MW of residential solar systems globally and 91 MW of commercial solar. SunPower doesn't break out sales by country, but it's safe to say the U.S. was its biggest market." As Tesla has been shutting down its solar operations, competitors like SunPower(NASDAQ: SPWR), Vivint Solar (NYSE: VSLR), and Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) have been steadily improving and even growing their businesses. In the third quarter, SunPower installed 70 MW of residential solar systems globally and 91 MW of commercial solar. SunPower doesn't break out sales by country, but it's safe to say the U.S. was its biggest market.

    Sunrun said it expects to deploy 88 MW of solar systems in the third quarter, up from 76 MW in the second quarter. If there's one company that could pass Tesla in U.S. market share in the next few quarters it's Sunrun.
    ..............more
  2. forestg

    forestg Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Planet earth
  3. forestg

    forestg Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Planet earth
    $100 million Texas solar project on hold as Trump administration threatens tariff
    5 days ago
    https://www.dallasnews.com/business...ct-hold-trump-administration-threatens-tariff

    President Donald Trump hasn't yet decided whether to impose tariffs on cheap imported solar equipment, but the uncertainty has already killed or slowed projects worth hundreds of millions of dollars and cost Texas jobs.

    A 100-megawatt, $100 million solar farm near Fort Stockton has been put on "indefinite hold" awaiting Trump's decision, said Scott Canada, senior vice president of renewable energy for McCarthy Building Companies. That project, he said, would have employed about 300 to 400 people for nine months at the peak of construction.

    "It's been a significant hit just within the last six months," he said about a federal agency's recommendation to impose up to 35 percent tariff on imports. "Every one of our customers said things are pretty much indefinitely on hold until there's clarity."
    .............................more

    Guess all these solar installer jobs lost can go to Tennessee and get them jobs digging coal... sheesh...
  4. forestg

    forestg Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Planet earth
    Gavilan College Selects SunPower to Deliver Combined Solar and Storage Project
    Nov 16, 2017
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gavilan-college-selects-sunpower-deliver-130500632.html?.tsrc=rss
    SAN JOSE, Calif., Nov. 16, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Gavilan College recently selected SunPower (SPWR) to deploy a fully integrated solar and storage project at its campus in Gilroy, Calif. A SunPower® Helix™ Carport system totaling about 1.4 megawatts will be installed across two of the college's largest parking lots, enhanced by a 250-kilowatt (500 kilowatt-hour) energy storage solution from Stem, Inc. to help deliver significant demand charge savings.

    System construction is currently underway, with completion expected before the end of 2017. To help finance the project, Gavilan Joint Community College District secured U.S. Department of Treasury clean renewable energy bonds (CREBs) with a 1.05 percent interest rate after a federal tax credit, which allow public sector entities to fund renewable energy projects. The district will own the solar power system along with the associated renewable energy credits.
    ...............more
  5. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    https://www.reuters.com/article/jap...prices-down-by-nearly-a-quarter-idUSL3N1NS1VL

    TOKYO, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Japan’s first auction for contracts to provide solar electricity pushed prices down by nearly a quarter from a previous system, but the cheapest bid was still more than eight times a record-low achieved recently in overseas markets, government data shows.

    The lowest accepted price for solar projects was 17,200 yen ($153.20) per megawatt hour (mwh), according to documents from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which handled the auction.


    That was down from 24,000 yen per mwh in the year through March 2017 for projects approved under METI’s feed-in-tariff programme set up in 2012 to encourage a switch to renewables after the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

    A recent solar power auction in Mexico yielded bids as low as $17.70/mwh, the latest in a series of ever lower prices for sun-powered projects that is upending energy markets around the world.


    “It is encouraging to see prices in Japan coming down. However.....


    read link for more.....
  6. stockbutterfly

    stockbutterfly Moderator Staff Member

    Location:
    montreal
    Mexico auction bid at 1.77 cents/kwh
    https://www.greentechmedia.com/arti...est-solar-wind-price-on-the-planet#gs.J3dZmqs

    Hope everyone enjoyed their US Thanksgiving. I have been overloaded with professional work lately. The old government in Canada was in love with the oil sector and the more recent government has many new programs now for GHG mitigation and clean tech. I have been landing some bigger projects for the first time in a few years and getting more conference activities so have been really tied up.
  7. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    Now others are recognizing the migration from FIT to competative bidding and suggesting this will hurt developers and margins and force them to become more efficient

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...slashing-costs?cmpid==socialflow-twitter-tech

    The old system relied on bureaucrats calculating how much in above-market rates developers should get as an incentive to move away from dirtier fossil fuels. Now, the builders submit bids representing the amount they’re willing to accept to proceed with a project. The lowest bids win.


    “Only those that have the most efficient technology, most precise and best practice of manufacturing, most solid financing and strongest control over the supply chain can survive,” said Qian Jing, a vice president at JinkoSolar Holding Co., the world’s biggest solar-panel maker. The trend “will squeeze margins for developers,” forcing them to become more efficient and use money more wisely, Qian said.

    read article for more.....
  8. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    https://thinkprogress.org/wind-solar-prices-plunge-6fd34b55cb66/

    rices for new wind and solar plants continue to plunge at an astonishing pace.

    Driven by steadily improving technology and the use of auctions to set prices, the cost of solar and wind dropped 25 percent this past year — and even more in some key emerging markets like China, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance data.

    That drop comes on top of an 80 percent reduction in the previous 10 years, which is why building new renewable energy sources is now cheaper than just running old coal and nuclear plants, as a new analysis recently detailed.



    read article for more....
  9. forestg

    forestg Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Planet earth
    Solar's Tumbling Costs Start Claiming Victims
    Nov 29, 2017
    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c780fcaf-f40a-3fd1-b133-c2fef73b1bfb/solar's-tumbling-costs-start.html

    Solar auctions are having their intended effect: Prices for developers are tumbling across Asia. While that’s good news for consumers, solar companies might have to reconsider the economics of projects already under way.

    That was the message from the world’s biggest solar panel maker, Trina Solar Ltd., during the second and final day of Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s summit in Shanghai Wednesday. Chief Executive Officer Gao Jifan said the Chinese company is reconsidering a planned India plant because prices there are now “too low.” Trina has already secured land for the manufacturing facility, he said.

    Component prices are also dropping. Gao said the price of solar panels could tumble 40 percent by 2025. Trina expects profits from businesses other than panels to rise to about 66 percent of its total by 2020 from 40 percent this year.
    ....................much more
  10. forestg

    forestg Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Planet earth
    4 Leaders in Solar Battery Storage
    Nov 29, 2017
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-leaders-solar-battery-storage-133000335.html?.tsrc=rss

    Solar energy and energy storage have always been natural partners for homeowners and businesses who want to produce their own energy. But the energy storage side of the equation has never made economic sense, partly because batteries are expensive and partly because residential and commercial solar owners can export electricity to the grid under net metering.

    Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR), SolarEdge (NASDAQ: SEDG), and Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) are the four companies to watch as the industry grows. What's changing right now is that battery costs are coming down rapidly and net metering is coming under pressure as utilities try to fight off growing residential and commercial solar installations. That creates an opening for solar and battery storage to become a booming market as companies create the technology that allows people to produce and consume more of their energy on-site. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR), SolarEdge (NASDAQ: SEDG), and Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) are the four companies to watch as the industry grows.
    ..................more details for each company
  11. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    Lucky number 13 markets estimated at 1GW+ for 2018 with Europe and Spain picking up some demand. 606GW estimated between 2017 and 2022. or 100GW a year. I believe that will be low.

    https://renewablesnow.com/news/list...ts-to-grow-to-13-in-2018-gtm-research-592872/

    November 29 (Renewables Now) - Brazil, Egypt, Mexico, the Netherlands and Spain will join the league of gigawatt-scale solar markets in 2018, according to GTM Research.

    In 2017 eight countries -- China, the US, India, Japan, Germany, France, Australia and South Korea -- will install more than 1 GW of solar, while next year the number of countries with annual installations above this threshold will reach 13.

    GTM Research says Europe will experience a renaissance in 2018 with 35% growth in demand. Spain will be at the forefront of the positive trend as its solar market is expected to surge to 1.4 GW from 40 MW in 2017, following its recent technology-neutral auction, which contracted 3.9 GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity.

    read article for more......
    forestg likes this.
  12. vidarslien

    vidarslien Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Norway
    Deliberate or not, the renewable industry may come out at the loosing end when the tax bill is passed, as the #1 financing option for renewables, namely tax equity financing, will become far less economic:
    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/beat-provision-tax-bill-vote#gs.I_j4UDw

    If so, this could become a major headwind for the renewable industry in the coming years, because project financing will become more expensive and therefore harder to obtain.
    Well, it never ends, does it...
    8thdimension likes this.
  13. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    Here are some fun facts for a hypothetical 100% home sufficiency for my house. I just looked at my electric bills and ran some numbers on usage and insolation in my area.

    I use appx 103,200 KWhr/yr in electricity. I use 287KWhrs a day summer or winter. This is based on 3 meters on my property running house a barn and an Agriculture well. My electricity rate is $0.13/khwr. or $13,500 a year in annual electric bills. Insolation in my area is about 1.7KWhrs per year on a single axis tracker.

    In order to go 100% solar and grid disconnect I have the following estimates
    51KW solar to meet summer needs
    75KW to meet winter needs based on insolation charts by month
    This is a quantity of 250 300 Watt panels
    Installed cost $112,000 at $1.50/W

    Battery storage 587KW to cover 2+ days of low sunlight
    cost $58,700 based on $100/KWhr.


    A 50KW backup generator and fuel tanks cost $30, 000 installed

    Miscelaneous labor @maintenance $50,000

    Total Cost $249,800
    30% ITC $74,900
    After ITC cost
    $174,860

    KWhrs generated over 20 years 2.66M
    cost pre ITC = $0.11/KWhr
    cost with ITC credits = $0.077/KWhr

    HWhrs generated over 30 years 3.21M KWhrs
    cost pre ITC = $0.078/KWhr
    cost with ITC credits = $0.0546/Kwhr

    as $250K is a lot of money finance charges will add 60% to the actual KWhr costs

    20 years no ITC $0.176
    20 years with ITC credits = $0.123

    30 year no ITC = $0.1248
    30 years with OTC credits = $0.087

    In these models, the only way that installing solar in my power user circumstance to get the ITC credits with finance. This would save me a total of $137,434.5 over 30 years. The other scenarios is break even or a loss as compared to my current rates. By the way we are part of an energy co op of which they return the profits back to the members of the coop.

    I also would have 50% to much power in the summer and if I could, I would have to sell back to to the co-op at at $0.06/KWhr . This could lower costs of $30,000 to $40,000 over 20 to 30 years or another $0.013/KWhr. That would make a 20 year ITC feasible.

    My problem is I am retired and approaching 60. I am not certain I will be around for 30 years and I certainly would not be trying to maintain the current property where this would be installed. There is no way I can use $75,000 in tax credits myself in retirement, thus going off grid solar is not a viable solution for me.

    The way to go for solar is community solar through co-ops or just stay grid connected or else hope your governments keep the ITC and keep mandating companies buy power from you at what they sell it to customers for. That later is a zero profit business that will send utilities into bankruptcy and in tern kill your solar.
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2017
  14. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    forestg likes this.
  15. forestg

    forestg Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Planet earth
    All you need to know why solars suck is right here...
    • Total solar module shipments were 2,374 megawatts ("MW"), a decrease of 17.7% from 2,884 MW in the second quarter of 2017 and an increase of 47.8% from 1,606 MW in the third quarter of 2016.
    • Total revenues were RMB6.42 billion (US$964.8 million), a decrease of 19.0% from the second quarter of 2017 and an increase of 20.4% from the third quarter of 2016.

    Year over year +48% in MW generated only +20.5% revenues.... so ASP is ONE YEAR have been slaughtered by more than 50%....
  16. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    A slow down in India due to policies?

    https://mercomindia.com/solar-imports-q3-year/

    mport and export activity in the Indian solar sector dropped by $464.15 million (~₹30 billion) quarter-over-quarter to $776.08 million (~₹49.9 billion) in the third quarter of calendar year 2017. By comparison, the second quarter of calendar year 2017 registered import and export activity worth $1.24 billion (~₹79.9 billion).

    The drop reflected a general slowdown in project installation activity caused by a number of market uncertainties during the period.

    Solar Imports in Q3 2017 (Jul-Sep 2017):

    There was a 40 percent drop in imports quarter-over-quarter, from $1.2 billion (~₹79.4 billion) in Q2 2017 to $732.87 million (~₹47.1 billion) in Q3 2017. This drop was due to several reasons including: a spike in Chinese module prices, the pending anti-dumping case, PPA renegotiations in some states, and imported solar modules that have been stranded at ports due to misclassification by port authorities.

    However, compared to the same period in 2016, solar imports were still up by 44 percent.

    read article for more.....
    forestg likes this.
  17. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    This article from China suggests a price war in Mono in which Longi has cut prices to that of Poly to spur demand which is now in over capacity for high end mono and perc.

    http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20171212/866958.shtml (need translator)

    By the end of October, Longji announced a substantial price cut silicon 0.4 yuan / piece, shaking the industry. As of today, single crystal prices are still stumbled, single-crystal cell prices have dropped to almost the same price with the diamond-cut polycrystalline cells, the price of RMB 1.68-1.7 yuan / W, single-crystal PERC battery dropped to RMB 1.9- 2 yuan / W or so.

    As single polycrystalline products cost per watt is basically the same, and single-crystal due to higher price of high-power premium, so have more room for profit. This makes single-crystal enterprises more able to reduce the price, narrowing single-poly spreads.


    read article for more.....
    forestg likes this.
  18. forestg

    forestg Well-Known Member

    Location:
    Planet earth
    Am I right to think that mono PERC is also more efficient than HE multi so that if the 2 are priced the same people will choose mono PERC every time???
  19. 8thdimension

    8thdimension Well-Known Member

    Location:
    South Carolina
    I think mono Si is more efficient than HE multi. If I use Energy Trends pricing and their cell costs per watt, you get around 3W per piece of HW and 3.2W per piece for mono. Those numbers seem kinda low as it makes 72 watt modules at 220HE and 235WMono. It is my understanding the Perc gets around a 7% gain in power over the base technology it is founded on.

    http://www.energytrend.com/

Share This Page