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Cold Winter play

Discussion in 'Member Recommendations' started by stockbutterfly, Oct 17, 2017.

  1. stockbutterfly

    stockbutterfly Moderator Staff Member

    Location:
    montreal
    Here is the historic La Nina onset by year and month. If you look at the data you can see that we have a strong comparison with the onset of the late fall La Nina in 1984 which lasted 10 months. Note how in late 1983 and late 2016 we had a mini cooling event. Same set up.

    http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

    Note the sunspots during that period were in the same rapidly declining position (tail end of the butterfly)

    https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.pdf

    Quiet sun .....cool pacific.. I mean intuitively it makes sense, I just do not understand why tracking solar activity with climate events on earth is so scientifically politically incorrect. I think if I was a NG short I would be rethinking my position as we have a very similar situation as 1984 emerging.

    If you go to slide 5 you will see the nino 3.4 area hit -0.5, this la nina is on its way is my best guess.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2017
  2. stockbutterfly

    stockbutterfly Moderator Staff Member

    Location:
    montreal
    I am riding UGAZ through this La Nina event. It was up 10% today. My guess is it has a pretty good risk reward. I will not sell it like I did my DQ :(

    If you go to slide 5 you will see the 3.4 area in the mid pacific hit a -0.8 temperature anomaly. Nice cooling event to potentially create a cold winter.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
  3. stockbutterfly

    stockbutterfly Moderator Staff Member

    Location:
    montreal
    The Australian government has declared La NiƱa established in tropical Pacific as cooling ocean temperatures continue. This increases chances of a cold winter in North America. The sun remains in a funk so my best guess is this will be an extended event that will surprise the climate scientists. The risk on this trade is that lots of natural gas is being produced in NA. I like the risk return on the trade as a cold winter could really make natural gas bounce due to tightening supplies. Here is the solar data. The sun is headed to the bottom of the 11 yr solar cycle and will likely stay there for the next 2 years http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-Cycle-24.png

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